Maryland Democrats made Question 3 a key issue in the mid-term elections that will allow them to redistrict the lone Republican out of the state's congressional delegation. But, that may have also damaged the prospects of Democratic candidate Dan Schwartz in his bid to unseat incumbent Republican Andy Harris. Delmarva Public Media's Kevin Diaz examines the impact of the measure on this Eastern Shore race:
Talbot County Democrat Dan Schwartz knew it was going to be a tall order to beat Republican U.S. Rep. Andy Harris on the rural Eastern Shore. The incumbent is an eight-term congressman with a national fundraising base as chairman of the uber conservative House Freedom Caucus.
In the end, Schwartz came closer than any of Harris’ previous Democratic challengers, losing by a margin of 53.3 percent to 46.6 percent, with absentee and mail ballots still being counted a week after Election Day.
The 7-point gap was Harris’ smallest margin of victory since 2010. The conservative stalwart usually wins by double-digit margins.
Still, there’s a haunting question for Schwartz as Harris escaped the Democratic wave that swept much of the rest of the country.
In a predominantly Republican district, Schwartz knew he was going to need help from independents and moderate Republicans. That was the winning formula for Democrats in other states. But not in Maryland’s First Congressional District, where something else was on the ballot: a proposal by Gov. Wes Moore and Democrats in Annapolis to redraw the district to dilute Republican strength and ultimately unseat Harris in a future election.
While voters in predominantly Democratic Maryland passed the measure, it was overwhelmingly rejected on the Eastern Shore, where Republicans, and even some Democrats, said it would take away the region’s unique voice in Congress.
“Anecdotally, I can tell you that it pissed off a lot of people,” Schwartz told Delmarva Public Media in a post-election interview. “It gave people reason to look past Congressman Andy Harris's character flaws and any sort of policy issue and just vote based on a feeling that viscerally the Democrats are trying to steal this district. They're trying to steal the Eastern shore.
“The American people are sick of gerrymandering.” Schwartz added. “It doesn't matter whether it's in a red direction or a blue direction. They are so sick of it.”
Wes Moore’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
Schwartz said he isn’t looking for excuses. But as Democrats studied Harris’ shrinking margin of victory in a wave election year, some saw a vulnerability that might have been better exploited – were it not for redistricting referendum, known as Question 3, that was unpopular in the district.
“I think that Dan Schwartz was, however unintentionally this may have been, sabotaged by Question 3, regardless of how people on the Eastern Shore feel about Andy Harris,” said Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist in Easton. “The manner in which the Annapolis political establishment swooped in to try to take him out, not at the ballot box, but through a blatant gerrymandering effort, it didn't wear well with people.”
Schwartz publicly opposed Question 3, but the Democratic Party’s obvious attempt to gerrymander the district apparently did little to help him win hearts and minds on the Eastern Shore.
That view was shared by some Republicans as well.
“I think it has sort of recharged some Republicans,” said Wicomico County Executive Julie Giordano, a Republican who did succumb to the blue wave and lost her reelection. “If at any point in time it was a Democratic strategy to try to take out Andy in just a general election like with Dan Schwartz, they totally blew that up with Question 3 because you've now recharged Republicans to come out and say, ‘We want that representation.’”
Harris remains Maryland’s sole Republican in Congress, partly as a result of previous Democratic-backed redistricting plans that packed conservative Eastern Shore Republican voters into one district.
Democratic opponents of the redistricting measure pointed to states like Texas, North Carolina and Florida, where mid-decade Republican gerrymandering efforts appeared to have backfired.
To be sure, analysts can only speculate about the What Ifs.
“To be honest with you, if you walk up to the average person that doesn't follow politics closely … and say, ‘Where are you on Question 3?’ they're going to look at you like you’ve got six heads,” said Clayton Mitchell, a Republican strategist from the Eastern Shore. “They have no idea what you're talking about.”
But for Schwartz, who is considering a 2028 rematch, there was a clear sense of a lost opportunity:
“I think this was our biggest opportunity to build a really, really big tent,” he said. “I think the gerrymandering we're seeing now is not big tent politics.”
For now, with the passage of the redistricting amendment in Maryland, the future of the First Congressional District on the Eastern Shore may likely be decided as much in the legislature and the courts as at the ballot box.
