MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
So back to the other major story we're following - the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. These attacks continue to have ripple effects far beyond that country's borders. So now we want to consider what the latest events mean for Russia, one of Iran's biggest allies, and the Kremlin's war in Ukraine. For that, we're joined by NPR's Russia correspondent Charles Maynes, who is in Moscow. Charles, good morning.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: Morning, Michel.
MARTIN: So what has the Kremlin been saying about the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran?
MAYNES: Well, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a condolence letter immediately after the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, calling the killing a cynical violation of morality and international law. His foreign ministry has accused the U.S. and Israel of hyping nuclear threats in Iran to foment regime change. But in many ways, Russia's reaction mirrors its response to Trump's actions in Venezuela after the capture and arrest of Nicolás Maduro, as Eyder was just talking about, where we saw scathing remarks but not much more and almost no criticism of Donald Trump, says Hanna Notte, a Russian analyst with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
HANNA NOTTE: And the reason for that, of course, is that the priority here for the Kremlin is still its ability to prosecute the war in Ukraine, to come out on top in Ukraine. And so it does not want to antagonize Trump.
MARTIN: You know, what's interesting, though, is Iran is Russia's ally, as was Venezuela under Maduro. Now, we know that Putin, Moscow, is very concerned about looking weak. Are there any concerns in Moscow about that?
MAYNES: Well, you know, Iran and Russia had a strategic partnership agreement that they signed last year, but critically, it's not a mutual defense pact. So there's no formal obligation that's being abrogated here. In fact, the Kremlin spokesman yesterday said Iran hadn't even asked for Russian weapons. Now, Russia's current pitch here is basically as a potential mediator as someone with contacts in Tehran that can help end the fighting. But to your point, Michel, you're right. You know, there's this sense, you know, that Russia can't protect its friends, given events in Iran and Venezuela, in Syria before that. And they're well aware that Cuba, another Russian ally, is also under threat from the Trump administration. But more startling, perhaps, is to hear voices on Russian state media so clearly state why.
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ANDREI SIDOROV: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: So Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, says Andrei (ph) Sidorov, a Russian academic, who was speaking on one of the key Kremlin propaganda shows earlier this week. Sidorov went on to say that President Trump, who many in Moscow had seen as our guy, was, in fact, a dangerous man, in his words, taking advantage of Russia's entanglement in Ukraine to undermine Moscow's interests elsewhere.
MARTIN: Say more about this. So how does this current military action in Iran affect Russia's war in Ukraine, where, you know, the U.S. has been active in trying to forge a peace deal?
MAYNES: Well, Iran provided drone technology to Russia early on in the war, but Russia's been producing those drones domestically for quite - for some time now, so there's no, you know, negative impact there. In fact, there's a case to be made that Russia's gaining from these events in Iran.
MARTIN: How so?
MAYNES: Well, you know, the future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, even if it's now being purchased by Europe, is in doubt as the U.S. puts priority, really, on stockpiling for its own combat forces in the Middle East. There's also the shock to world energy markets that can benefit Russia. Prices on crude and gas are way up. That's welcome cash for the Kremlin at a moment when its economy was struggling and Trump's sanctions on Russian oil were starting to bite.
Notably, the White House just gave India, which was supposed to wean itself off Russian crude imports under the threat of U.S. sanctions, a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil. But more long term, you know, Russia's war chest could also benefit from picking up key Iranian and other Gulf state energy contracts to major importers like China. So we're already seeing Russia try and reposition itself as the safer bet for global energy needs. But that only works, of course, if the instability in the Middle East continues for some time.
MARTIN: That is NPR's Charles Maynes. Charles, thank you.
MAYNES: Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF GARY BURTON'S "LAS VEGAS TANGO") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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